Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso remains optimistic about the country’s export growth prospects, forecasting a 7.1 percent increase in 2025. He acknowledged that this projected growth is a significant leap from the 2.29 percent increase recorded in 2024. However, he emphasized the need for confidence and collaboration between the government and the private sector to achieve this ambitious target.
Budi highlighted that the government plays a crucial role in facilitating trade by formulating supportive policies, establishing trade agreements, and providing necessary institutional backing. Meanwhile, the private sector can act as a strategic partner to the Ministry of Trade by actively promoting Indonesian products in international markets.
The Minister also underscored the immense potential of the global furniture market, which was valued at approximately US$770.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$925.42 billion by 2029. Recognizing this opportunity, the Ministry of Trade has introduced three key programs to enhance Indonesia’s export performance.
The first initiative focuses on strengthening the domestic market by improving the competitiveness of locally made products, particularly those from micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which often struggle against an influx of imported goods. Budi aims to ensure that these businesses gain greater market share within the country.
The second strategy is centered on expanding Indonesia’s reach in global markets. Budi expressed his vision for an unrestricted export market and noted that the government is actively negotiating trade agreements to facilitate this goal. Key agreements currently under discussion include the Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (I-EU CEPA), Peru CEPA, and Eurasia CEPA. These agreements are expected to provide Indonesian exporters with more access to international markets and enhance trade partnerships.
The third initiative involves preparing MSMEs for international trade. To this end, the Ministry of Trade has implemented training programs and appointed export instructors to guide MSMEs through the complexities of exporting. Budi pointed out that many businesses hesitate to engage in export activities due to unfamiliarity with procedures. By offering structured training and expert guidance, the Ministry aims to equip MSMEs with the necessary knowledge and confidence to enter foreign markets.
Budi also reflected on the evolving structure of Indonesia’s export sector. Currently, 78 percent of national exports come from the manufacturing industry, marking a significant shift from 15 years ago when around 70 percent of exports consisted of raw materials. This transition signifies Indonesia’s growing emphasis on value-added goods in international trade.
According to data from the Central Statistical Office (BPS), Indonesia’s total export performance in 2024 amounted to US$264.70 billion. Out of this total, the non-oil and gas processing industry contributed US$196.54 billion, accounting for 74.25 percent of the overall export value. The sector’s export performance saw a 5.33 percent increase compared to the previous year, playing a key role in securing a trade surplus of US$31.04 billion for Indonesia in 2024.
The strong performance of Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports has been driven by the export of manufactured goods, including chemical products, vehicles, and automotive parts. Major export destinations include China, Japan, Singapore, and India, reflecting Indonesia’s strategic trade relationships with these global economic powerhouses.
Meanwhile, President Prabowohas expressed confidence that Indonesia’s economy can expand by 8 percent within the first year of his term, surpassing the country’s average growth rate of around 5 percent in recent years. This ambitious target is expected to drive a steady increase in annual export goals. The Prabowo administration aims to conclude its final year in office with a total export value of US$405.7 billion in 2029, representing a 9.6 percent year-on-year growth compared to the 2028 target.
China continues to be Indonesia’s largest non-oil and gas export destination, with trade reaching US$54.4 billion over the reviewed period. Additionally, Indonesia currently benefits from bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements, which have strengthened its market access to major economies such as the ASEAN region, China, Australia, and Japan. According to Trade Ministry official Puntodewi, Indonesia’s export trend has been steadily rising with countries with which it has established free trade agreements.
To strengthen Indonesia’s presence in the global market, the Ministry of Trade is also focusing on market diversification. This initiative aims to broaden the reach of Indonesian products beyond traditional trade partners, ensuring sustainable export growth in the coming years. With these initiatives in place, the government remains hopeful that Indonesia’s export sector will continue to thrive, positioning the country as a competitive player in the global marketplace.
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