Despite the latest surge in tariffs and mounting geopolitical tensions, global trade has held up far better than many expected. According to the latest Global Connectedness Tracker from DHL and NYU Stern, the world’s trade networks are still very much active, and globalization, though sometimes perceived to be under threat, has yet to reverse course.
In the first half of 2025, international trade grew faster than in any comparable half-year since 2010, excluding the extraordinary rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic. Although global trade forecasts have been trimmed due to renewed tariff uncertainty, growth remains in positive territory. The trade volumes are expected to rise by roughly 2.5% annually from 2025 through 2029, only slightly below the pre-tariff projection of 3.1%. The modest downgrade underscores headwinds, but it also reveals how resilient the global trading system has become in the face of political disruptions.
The United States remains a key player in this system, accounting for around 13% of global imports and 9% of global exports. Yet the data make clear that American tariff policy alone cannot dictate the course of world trade. While higher US tariffs have dampened some bilateral flows, the overall pattern of global commerce continues to diversify. Regions such as South and Central America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa have actually seen their trade growth forecasts revised upward in 2025, reflecting both lower exposure to US tariffs and surging demand for commodities like energy and agricultural goods.
The average distance that goods travel reached an all-time high of nearly 5,000 kilometers in early 2025, and the share of trade occurring within major world regions fell to a record low of about 51%. This suggests that globalization is not contracting, it is merely reshaping itself, with companies and countries reconfiguring their supply chains rather than retreating from them.
Geopolitically, fears of a world split into rival trading blocs have not yet materialized. Trade between the United States and China has indeed softened, but this shift represents only a small fraction of total global flows. Instead of abandoning global markets, many firms are reducing exposure to volatile partners while maintaining broad international ties. Meanwhile, countries that are not firmly aligned with either major power bloc have emerged as increasingly vital trade intermediaries, benefiting from their neutrality and strategic locations.
Several factors explain this enduring resilience. The relatively limited share of global trade that passes directly through the United States means that no single nation can unilaterally reverse globalization. Moreover, many companies accelerated imports ahead of tariff hikes, providing a short-term boost to activity. More importantly, businesses have adapted quickly, diversifying suppliers, rerouting exports, and redesigning production networks to maintain market access despite higher costs and regulatory uncertainty.
Recent updates highlight new areas of dynamism. Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, recorded trade value growth of more than 10% in the first half of 2025, underscoring the region’s growing role in global commerce. Logistics firms are expanding investments in emerging markets across Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia to support these new trade corridors. Company executives have emphasized that while tariff risks remain, the underlying momentum of global trade makes a broad-based deglobalization unlikely in the near future. Rather than shrinking, trade is being rebalanced, its geography, composition, and partners are changing, but its overall scale continues to rise.
For policymakers and business leaders, the message is clear: globalization is evolving, not ending. Firms will need to operate in a slower-growing but more complex environment, one characterized by shifting tariffs, diversified supply routes, and new strategic hubs. Emerging regions, less exposed to tariff battles, may see accelerating opportunities as the global trade map redraws itself. And while the pace of globalization may have moderated, its reach continues to extend, proving that even in an era of political friction, the world remains deeply interconnected.
