Although China and the United States have recently achieved progress on trade and maritime-shipping agreements, there is little indication of a robust rebound in trans-Pacific trade activity in the near term. Ongoing uncertainty has compelled ocean carriers to push for higher freight rates through General Rate Increases (GRIs), even as demand remains subdued. According to the Freightos Baltic Index, eastbound rates from Asia to the US West Coast declined by 1 percent, while Asia-to-East Coast rates rose 4 percent.
The discussions between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea yielded a temporary suspension of tariff tensions and, notably, a one-year pause on the port-call surcharges originally planned for Chinese vessels calling at US ports. This reprieve provides relief to Chinese carriers, which had been facing potentially substantial costs. As Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos observed, the pause reduces immediate cost pressures for Chinese operators, and while some non-Chinese lines may continue to reposition China-built vessels defensively, the risk of abrupt reinstatement shadows their decisions.
Still, Levine remains skeptical that this de-escalation will trigger a sudden surge in trans-Pacific volume. Roughly two-thirds of China’s exports to the US continue to bear tariffs of up to 25 percent, on top of a baseline duty rate of about 20 percent on all Chinese exports. This structural cost burden limits upside demand, especially given that many importers have already diversified sourcing away from China, and much of the traditional peak-season activity was front-loaded earlier in the year. Moreover, the historically slow months of November and December could suppress demand further.
Volatility may return soon, the US Supreme Court recently heard arguments challenging Trump’s authority to impose such tariffs under emergency powers, and a ruling may not arrive before June next year. At the same time, sector-specific tariffs persist, and Washington continues to apply trade restrictions across different legal regimes.
The current stability is considered fragile though it may be as an opportunity for the ocean-transport sector to return to a more seasonal pattern in 2026. Rather than seeing large, stop-start swings in ocean volume, the market could settle into a more predictable cadence, even if the elevated costs remain for importers.
In fact, GRIs are already in motion. Published trans-Pacific container rates to the US West Coast reportedly jumped in early November, though actual contracted rates may be lower given weak underlying demand.
On the Asia-Europe front, daily rates have also increased. However, maintaining these higher rate levels may depend on carriers’ ability to blank sailings to realign capacity with easing demand, as capacity growth is still putting downward pressure on rates, especially when compared on a year-on-year basis. For Asia-Europe, despite improved volumes and persistent congestion in Europe, freight rates remain more than 40 percent below the levels seen a year ago.
Looking ahead, business should anticipate a market defined by cautious optimism but constrained by structural headwinds. The current pause in trade escalation provides a window for more predictable planning, yet sustained recovery will depend on the alignment of demand, tariff policy clarity, and disciplined carrier capacity management. Companies with diversified sourcing strategies and agile logistics planning will be best positioned to navigate what is likely to remain a fragmented and cost-sensitive global shipping environment into 2026.
