European Shippers Expect Two More Years of Disruptions

Companies are increasingly responding to persistent supply-chain volatility by diversifying their sourcing strategies and exploring new trade routes. According to a recent Maersk survey of more than 900 firms across Europe, four out of five cargo owners expect major disruptions to continue for at least another 2 years, which shows the long shadow cast by geopolitical tension, shifting tariff regimes, and regulatory uncertainty.

More than 78% of respondents said they expect geopolitical dynamics, trade tariffs, and global regulations to weigh on their operations well into 2027. Nearly half (48%) described themselves as “deeply concerned” about the geopolitical environment, and 80% believe current supply chain challenges are already hampering business growth.

Companies are responding by aggressively rebalancing their supply-chain strategies, with about 75% now sourcing from multiple regions, a sharp rise from 53% in 2024. At the same time, eight in ten firms are strengthening partnerships with logistics providers and key suppliers, while around 60% are investing in improved visibility, agility, and flexible operations.

Additionally, three-quarters of respondents say they have already shifted or are planning to shift to alternative trade routes to reduce risk and increase resilience. European businesses are no longer waiting passively for stability. Instead, they are actively building resilient and smarter networks to capture growth opportunities despite ongoing volatility.

Tariff disruptions remain a critical pain point. The sudden tariff changes earlier this year, especially in the US, which sparked widespread anxiety. He emphasized the need for proactive tools, arguing that real-time customs data and agile platforms, allow companies to react quickly to “black swan” policy events.

Looking ahead, companies see geopolitical turbulence as a defining challenge for the coming years. When asked about the most significant risks emerging from this shifting landscape, nearly half pointed to fluctuations in import and export costs, while 43% highlighted the likelihood of additional trade tariffs, and 40% cited growing uncertainty in global trade policies. Together, these concerns reinforce the view that volatility in global commerce is far from temporary.

Recent developments in 2025 further validate these concerns. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has cautioned that intensifying geopolitical tensions and newly imposed tariffs are injecting substantial volatility into global shipping corridors.

At the same time, several major European ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, and Hamburg, have begun reporting severe congestion, the worst since the pandemic, as vessels are rerouted and capacity bottlenecks widen. Even Maersk has adjusted its forward outlook, noting that global container demand is softening in response to persistent policy uncertainty and shifting trade patterns.

Taken together, these trends make clear that supply chain disruption is no longer seen as a short-term or peripheral issue. Businesses increasingly view it as a multi-year structural challenge that demands new approaches.

As a result, many are moving from reactive risk management waiting for shocks to pass, to proactive resilience-building, investing in diversified supplier bases, alternative trade routes, and digital tools that improve visibility and agility. While tariffs and regulatory uncertainty remain core sources of pressure, companies are now looking for ways to turn volatility into opportunity by redesigning their networks for flexibility rather than trying to return to pre-crisis norms.

Ultimately, the pressures facing global trade are unlikely to ease quickly, and European businesses appear to be adjusting their expectations accordingly. What is emerging is a new era of supply-chain strategy, one defined not by efficiency alone, but also by resilience, optionality, and long-term adaptability. In a world where geopolitical uncertainty has become the norm rather than the exception, preparedness is a necessity.

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