The Port of Long Beach recorded impressive figures in August, highlighting both the strength of US import demand and the volatility created by shifting trade policies. The port reported handling 901,846 TEUs during the month, making it the second-busiest August on record and the sixth-busiest month in its 114-year history. This volume came in just 1.3% below the all-time monthly high set in 2024.
The details, however, paint a more nuanced picture. Imports fell 3.6% to 440,318 TEUs, while exports slipped 8.3% to 95,960 TEUs. In contrast, empty container movements increased 3.7% to 365,567 TEUs, a figure that often signals carriers are repositioning equipment back to Asia for refilling, a forward-looking indicator of continued import activity.
Mario Cordero, Chief Executive of the Port of Long Beach, emphasized that “shifting trade policies continue to create uncertainty for businesses and consumers.” Still, the port’s Supply Chain Information Highway digital tracker projects that peak shipping season will remain on pace with last year, as retailers fill warehouses in preparation for the critical holiday sales period.
Much of the August surge can be traced to tariff policy. President Trump’s original 90-day tariff pause expired in early August, but a new pause, keeping the 30% baseline tariff structure intact, has been extended into November while negotiations between Washington and Beijing proceed. This pause not only provided relief to importers but also gave US Customs and Border Protection breathing space. Customs officials had been strained by constant regulatory changes and were at risk of bottlenecks due to overwhelmed IT systems.
The impact of this policy reprieve was visible on the ground. A distributor sourcing industrial testing equipment from China and Malaysia reported a steady uptick in demand, orders rose in June, accelerated in July, and appeared to hit record levels in August. While tariffs raised costs by around 3%, the distributor said customers had regained confidence in their planning, suggesting that the tariff pause delivered more than just temporary financial relief, it also stabilized business sentiment.
Year-to-date performance shows the broader momentum. From January through August, Long Beach processed 6,592,708 TEUs, representing an 8.3% year-over-year increase. This growth suggests that despite trade tensions, the US economy remains reliant on imports to feed both consumer and industrial demand. The uptick in empty container exports further supports the idea that carriers are preparing for a sustained period of inbound cargo, particularly as retailers brace for the holiday season.
Should negotiations between Washington and Beijing advance constructively, the outcome could include a longer-term suspension of tariffs or a phased reduction in duties. Such an environment would support steady import flows and contribute to price stability for consumers. US ports, including Long Beach, would manage cargo volumes at a balanced pace, reducing the risk of excessive front-loading. With greater policy clarity, retailers would gain the confidence to plan inventories in line with actual demand rather than political cycles. This adjustment would ease strain on logistics networks and enhance overall supply chain efficiency.
The most likely outcome is an extension of the current tariff pause through the holiday season, though without firm commitments beyond year-end. This temporary measure would leave businesses uncertain about trade policy in 2026. Importers are expected to continue shipping aggressively in the near term, sustaining elevated TEU volumes through the fourth quarter. However, this approach carries the risk of a post-holiday slowdown, as warehouse capacity is stretched and consumer demand moderates. Cargo flows would remain uneven, but ports and carriers are projected to manage the associated disruptions within tolerable limits.
However, if negotiations fail and tariffs are reinstated in full after November, trade flows would face renewed volatility. A surge in pre-deadline imports would likely overwhelm West Coast ports, creating significant congestion and straining customs systems. Following the reimposition of duties, import volumes would contract sharply, producing a destabilizing “boom-bust” cycle. Businesses would contend with elevated costs, consumers would experience higher prices, and logistics providers would face heightened operational and revenue volatility.
The surge at Long Beach highlights both strong demand and the growing influence of politics on trade flows. While the numbers suggest continued momentum into the fall, the true trajectory of volumes will depend on tariff policy. Businesses that depend on steady cargo flows should plan for volatility, maintain flexibility in sourcing and shipping schedules, and closely monitor US–China trade negotiations.
