Congestion at major Asian container ports has become one of the biggest issues in ocean shipping this autumn, and analysts now expect it to continue well into next year. For Indonesian exporters and importers, much of whose cargo moves through transshipment hubs such as Singapore and Port Klang, the delays affect transit times, connections and freight costs.
How big is the problem?
According to Danish analyst Sea-Intelligence, congestion at Asian ports is currently tying up about 8.5% of the global container ship fleet, or roughly 3 million TEU of capacity. Some other analysts put the figure higher. Sea-Intelligence estimates it could take seven to ten months for congestion to fall back to the levels seen in June 2025, which means the backlog may not clear until mid-2027.
The effect is already visible in schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence reported that global on-time performance fell to 49.9% in August, the lowest level since September 2022, with late vessels arriving an average of 6.81 days behind schedule. In practice, this means fewer than half of container ships are arriving on time.
Where the pressure is
China’s main ports are showing some improvement. After a run of typhoons between July and September, the volume of ships waiting at Shanghai and Ningbo fell by about a third between late September and 9 October, according to Linerlytica, helped by lower cargo volumes around the Golden Week holiday.
Southeast Asia remains under strain. In early to mid-October, Kuehne+Nagel reported berth waits of three to five days at Singapore, and yard utilisation there has been running at around 85–90%. Port Klang has been less affected, with average waits of around one and a half to two days, but planned dredging work at one of its berths from 30 October to 2 November could tighten capacity further.
In the Philippines, a build-up of empty containers in Manila has led to trucker protests. Hapag-Lloyd has stopped taking new bookings to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay, and says the suspension is currently scheduled to last until 31 December 2026.
What it means for freight rates
Congestion keeps ships and containers tied up, which reduces the capacity available to shippers. Rates have started rising again after several weeks of decline. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 2% to US$4,585 per 40ft container on 22 October, its second weekly increase and the highest level in 15 weeks. On the Asia–Europe trade, the Freightos Baltic Index for Asia–North Europe rose 6% to US$3,442 per 40ft container in the week to 20 October, as carriers pushed general rate increases ahead of 2027 contract negotiations. Freightos noted that some forwarders doubt these increases will hold.
The return of container ships to the Red Sea, which we covered earlier this month, adds another factor. Alphaliner reports that about 63% of Far East–Europe capacity is now deployed on services using the Red Sea route. Shorter voyages through the Suez Canal should release capacity over time, but for now much of that benefit is being absorbed by congestion at Asian ports.
Planning ahead
The timing matters for anyone shipping in the coming months. Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, and the usual pre-holiday rush of exports is likely to arrive before the current backlog has fully cleared. For shippers in Indonesia, a few practical steps can help:
- Book space earlier than usual, especially for cargo moving in January and February.
- Allow extra time for transshipment connections, not just for the first leg from Indonesia.
- Check routings that avoid the most congested hubs where possible.
- Keep in close contact with your forwarder on vessel schedules and any rate increases.
Our team in Jakarta, Semarang, Surabaya and Medan follows these developments closely. If you have cargo moving in the coming weeks, contact us to discuss routing and timing options.
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