Global air cargo demand continued its upward trajectory, increasing by 7.7 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The growth reflects stronger international trade and manufacturing activity, alongside rising shipments of goods associated with artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. However, despite the positive demand outlook, the aviation industry faces mounting financial pressure as jet fuel prices continue to surge, creating challenges for airlines seeking to maintain profitable cargo operations.
The expansion in air cargo demand exceeded the growth in available capacity, indicating stronger demand for transportation services across international markets. IATA reported that global air cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by just 2.7 percent year-on-year in September 2026. International capacity recorded a slightly stronger increase of 3.3 percent compared with September 2025.
The difference between demand and capacity growth highlights the continued strength of the global air freight market. With demand expanding faster than available capacity, airlines could benefit from improved cargo utilization and stronger pricing opportunities. Nevertheless, the extent to which carriers can translate higher demand into better financial performance will depend heavily on their ability to manage operating expenses, particularly fuel costs.
At the regional level, North American airlines recorded the strongest growth in air cargo demand, with an increase of 11.8 percent compared with September 2025. Asia-Pacific carriers followed with an annual growth rate of 8.6 percent, reflecting the region’s important role in global manufacturing, technology supply chains, and international trade.
Airlines in Latin America and the Caribbean also reported positive results, with cargo demand rising by 6.7 percent year-on-year. European carriers recorded growth of 4.5 percent, while airlines in the Middle East experienced the weakest performance among the major regions, with demand increasing by only 3.8 percent.
In the Asia-Pacific region, cargo capacity expanded by 4.9 percent compared with the previous year. The region continued to benefit from its strong position in global technology manufacturing and supply chains, particularly as shipments of AI-related equipment and components gained momentum. The growing demand for advanced computing infrastructure, semiconductor products, and other technology-related goods has created additional opportunities for air freight operators.
The increasing importance of AI-related shipments also reflects a broader transformation in global logistics. High-value technology products often require reliable and relatively fast transportation, making air cargo an essential component of international supply chains. As businesses continue investing in digital infrastructure and advanced computing systems, demand for specialized air freight services could remain an important source of growth for the industry.
Despite these encouraging developments, rising jet fuel prices have emerged as a significant challenge for airlines. IATA reported that jet fuel prices increased by 17.5 percent in September 2026 compared with the previous month. On an annual basis, the increase reached 103.4 percent compared with September 2025.
Such a substantial increase in fuel costs places considerable pressure on airline operating expenses. Fuel represents one of the industry’s major cost components, meaning sustained price increases can quickly reduce profit margins, particularly when airlines are unable to pass additional expenses on to customers through higher freight rates.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, identified stronger global trade and manufacturing activity as important factors supporting the expansion of air cargo demand. However, she also highlighted the difficulty of translating stronger demand into improved financial returns when fuel expenses continue to rise.
The availability of goods requiring transportation is not the primary concern for the industry. Instead, the central challenge is ensuring that cargo operations remain economically viable despite the significant increase in fuel prices. Airlines must therefore balance their efforts to accommodate growing shipment volumes with careful cost management and operational efficiency.
Broader economic indicators also point to improving conditions for the global air cargo sector. International trade activity increased by 3.6 percent year-on-year in August 2026, extending the expansion trend to 42 consecutive months. This sustained growth suggests that cross-border demand for goods remains relatively resilient despite ongoing cost pressures and uncertainty in the global economic environment.
Manufacturing indicators provided further evidence of strengthening economic activity. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for output increased by 0.7 points to 53.8, while the index for new export orders rose by 0.5 points to 51.9. Both indicators reached their highest levels in five years, signaling stronger production activity and improving international demand for manufactured products.
These developments are particularly important for air cargo because manufacturing and international trade generate substantial demand for the transportation of intermediate goods, components, and finished products. Stronger export orders can increase the need for reliable international logistics, especially for industries dealing with time-sensitive or high-value shipments.
Route-level performance also demonstrated significant differences across international markets. The strongest growth in air cargo traffic occurred on the Asia-North America route, which recorded a 17 percent increase compared with the previous year. The performance highlights the continued importance of trade connections between two major economic regions, supported by manufacturing activity and growing demand for technology-related products.
In contrast, several routes associated with the Middle East continued to face pressure. Traffic on the Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia routes remained comparatively weak, reflecting uneven market conditions across international air freight networks. These differences indicate that the recovery and expansion of cargo demand are not occurring at the same pace across all regions.
Looking ahead, the global air cargo industry faces a combination of favorable demand conditions and substantial cost-related risks. Stronger trade activity, expanding manufacturing output, and the increasing movement of AI-related products provide a solid foundation for continued growth. However, the sharp increase in jet fuel prices could limit profitability and force airlines to reconsider pricing strategies, capacity allocation, and operational efficiency.
The industry’s ability to sustain its growth will depend not only on the availability of cargo and the strength of international trade but also on how effectively airlines manage rising expenses while maintaining competitive services.
Global air cargo demand is expected to remain supported by expanding trade and technology-related shipments, but the industry’s long-term performance will depend on its ability to balance growing transportation needs with escalating fuel costs and sustainable profitability.
