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Indonesia’s Export Strategy in the Second Half of 2025

When the United States officially imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports on August 7, 2025, it marked a turning point for the country’s trade policy. What could have been a severe blow to Indonesia’s export-driven industries was instead met with a calculated response. The government aims to minimize the negative impact while turning the situation into an opportunity for economic reform and industrial competitiveness.

The 19% tariff itself was the result of successful negotiations. Originally, the US planned to impose a 32% tariff on many Indonesian products as part of its broader reciprocal tariff policy. Through the diplomatic initiatives of the President and the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, the rate was successfully lowered, marking a notable diplomatic win. The reduction was particularly vital for labor-intensive industries like textiles, footwear, and furniture, which rely heavily on US markets.

Indonesia now enjoys relatively more favorable tariff treatment. While still a challenge, the 19% rate positions Indonesian exports more competitively than those from countries facing higher trade barriers. Therefore, the government is determined to use this momentum to reinforce its global trade presence.

Before the tariff came into effect, Indonesian exporters rushed to accelerate shipments to the US, a practice known as frontloading. Government officials were quick to frame this as a normal response, not a panic move. It was a practical step to protect short-term revenues while stakeholders prepared for new pricing realities in the US market.

However, this rush showed a deeper concern, many industries remain heavily dependent on U.S. buyers. Thus, the government recognized the urgency not only to manage the immediate fallout but to reduce long-term vulnerabilities. In response, Indonesia has rolled out both short-term cushioning strategies and long-term competitiveness reforms.

Key among these is streamlining regulations. The government introduced Government Regulation No. 28 of 2025, along with Service Level Agreements (SLA), to cut red tape in business licensing and export processes. These changes are aimed at lowering logistics and operational costs, an essential step for exporters trying to maintain profit margins despite the new tariff.

Additionally, the government is re-evaluating local content requirements (TKDN) for specific imported products, especially in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector. This is a pragmatic move where domestic production cannot meet quality or volume demands. Relaxing TKDN allows businesses to maintain continuity without compromising efficiency.

Textiles and apparel have emerged as the government’s priority export sector in this new trade environment. With the 19% tariff now formalized, Indonesia sees an opportunity to strengthen these industries through targeted support, investment promotion, and supply chain improvements.

According to the Ministry of Industry, textiles are not just labor-intensive, they also represent high export potential and growing global demand. Strengthening this sector could lead to job creation, especially in rural and semi-urban regions where manufacturing facilities are concentrated.

Economic analysts are cautiously optimistic. Institutions like Institute for Development of Economics & Finance (INDEF) recommend a three-part strategy: expanding market destinations, improving the investment climate, and diversifying export products beyond traditional sectors. This would shield the economy from future trade shocks and ensure resilience.

Others suggest Indonesia should use this moment to shift from price-based competition to value-based trade, focusing on quality, certification standards, and innovation. That means encouraging R&D, improving production technologies, and supporting SMEs in joining global value chains.

While a 19% tariff is not ideal, Indonesia’s response so far reflects a proactive and measured approach. Rather than resorting to protectionism or subsidy-heavy solutions, the country is focusing on regulatory efficiency, sectoral prioritization, and diplomatic leverage. The broader ambition is clear, transforming Indonesia into a more agile, diversified, and globally competitive export economy.

In the months ahead, much will depend on execution. But if Indonesia can stay the course, balancing short-term export stabilization with long-term industrial reform, it could turn this trade friction into a strategic advantage.

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