Global Trade & Logistic Trends

Indonesia’s trade balance is projected to remain in deficit, extending the negative trend that began in May after an unprecedented 72 consecutive months of trade surpluses. Although economists expect the deficit to narrow compared with the previous month, the persistence of the shortfall underscores the growing pressure from rising imports, particularly capital goods and manufactured products from China, which continue to outpace export growth.

The United States introduced a significant new trade measure on July 24, 2026, when the Section 301 Forced Labor Import Duties officially took effect. The policy represents one of the most sweeping changes to U.S. import regulations this year because it applies broadly to imports from 60 economies rather than targeting only specific products or industries.

Global inflation risks are entering a new phase. While soaring energy prices have been the dominant driver of inflation in recent years, a sharp escalation in international logistics costs, triggered by mounting geopolitical tensions, is emerging as another major source of price pressures with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Trump has escalated trade tensions with Canada once again, announcing a new round of sweeping 50% tariffs on most Canadian imports. The latest tariffs would apply to a broad range of Canadian goods entering the United States, marking one of the most significant increases in trade barriers between the two countries in recent years.

PT Danantara Sumber Daya Alam (DSI) is preparing to fully implement Indonesia’s one-stop natural resources (NR) export management system on 1 September 2026, marking a significant step in the government’s efforts to strengthen governance of strategic commodity exports. The policy is designed to improve transparency in export transactions, oversight of export proceeds, and curb practices that have long been viewed as reducing state revenues

Trump has announced plans to impose a 20% levy on the value of all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, marking one of the most significant proposed changes to maritime security and international shipping policy in recent years. The announcement coincides with the United States’ decision to reinstate a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports.

Indonesia is exploring the possibility of extending carbon pricing incentives to ports that adopt green and smart operating standards under the country’s Carbon Economic Value (Nilai Ekonomi Karbon/NEK) scheme, a move that could create a new financial incentive for reducing emissions in the maritime sector while strengthening the competitiveness of national ports.

Indonesia Customs has begun accelerating the clearance of long-stored imported goods at Tanjung Priok Port through the destruction of state-controlled and unclaimed cargo, marking the first step in reducing longstay containers that have occupied customs areas for extended periods.

Indonesia’s export performance is expected to come under greater pressure in the second half of 2026, with economists projecting export growth of only 0–2% amid mounting external challenges. The outlook has deteriorated following the country’s first monthly trade deficit in six years.

The Red Sea has once again become a focal point of global maritime security concerns after a cargo vessel came under attack off the coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attack shows the persistent fragility of security conditions in the Red Sea despite periods of relative calm over recent months.